Confidence Intervals
According to University of Glasgow Department of Statistics, a
Confidence Interval is defined as:

~A confidence interval gives an
estimated range of values which is likely to include an unknown population
parameter (usually a population proportion or a population mean), the estimated
range being calculated from a given set of sample data.
~If independent
samples are taken repeatedly from the same population, and a confidence interval
calculated for each sample, then a certain percentage (confidence level) of the
intervals will include the unknown population parameter.
~Confidence
intervals are usually calculated so that this percentage is 95%, but we can
produce 90%, 99%, 99.9% (or whatever) confidence intervals for the unknown
parameter
~Note: For example, a 95% confidence interval (range of
values), will contain the true population parameter (being estimated), 95% of
the time. This is also called the confidence level, degree of confidence,
or the coefficient of confidence.
~This is a probability the confidence
interval will contain the true population parameter being estimated, if this
estimation process is repeated a large number of times.
~Note: The
population parameter is a constant (but unknown), so it will either fall in the
interval each time we perform the estimation process or not.
~Therefore,
it would be wrong to say that there is a .95 probability that it will, since the
population parameter is fixed & is not a random
variable...quite tricky...however, since we do not know if it does or not, a
spectulaive guess on our part could use a probability interpretation. (even if
there is no probability involved with its location)
~Example: let’s say
that we have a 95% confidence interval for a population proportion as follows:
.54 < p <.66.
~Suppose the true
value of this parameter is .55 (unknown to us). In this case, the confidence
interval does contain the true value of p.
~However, repeating this
estimation process (from our sample data) a large number of times, we will
produce many different limits (end points of our confidence intervals).
~Some may not contain .55.
~But we are sure that, in the long
run, 95% of them will contain .55.
~There is a fine distinction between
saying that & saying that there is a .95 probability that they contain .55,
which is, technically, not correct...however, we could say that, based on a pure
speculative guess....a bit confusing, to say the least
~Note: To find these easily using the TI-83, see the link, "Using the TI-83" on my Statistics page.