~Almost everyone would say, "flying is safer than driving". Very few of us actually take a closer look at how this conclusion is formulated...we just accept it based on the number of fatalities reported by aircraft compared to the number reported by cars, trucks, & vans.

~Note: My discussion will focus on the US only.

~For example, in 2002, it was reported that 653 individuals died in air accidents while 20,623 died in vehicle related accidents...so, that proves it...right?...well, not necessarily!

~One must look closely and come to a reasonable estimate of YOUR chances of being one of them. In other words, you must ask the question, "what is the probability that you meet your doom in an aircraft compared to a motor vehicle"?

~Based on the fatalities per mile traveled, you’ll feel quite comfortable flying...since, flying covers so much more, in mileage, than driving. So, the probability of a fatal air accident is so much lower than a fatal vehicle accident.  (number of fatalities divided by miles traveled)

~But in reality, we know that there are an enormous number of vehicle accidents that do not result in any injuries...just fender-benders...anyone who drives usually has one or two each year, whether or not it’s your fault.

~How many fender-bender types of accidents do you hear about involving aircraft?.. very few, if any at all...

~So, let’s view these statistics on fatal accidents a little differently.

~For my argument, I will be using the ratio of fatalities to number of TRIPS. In my opinion, this is a better measure of comparison.

~In order to follow & understand my argument, I must define my terms & make certain assumptions. You will either accept them (then you can continue with my discussion) or not accept them (leave the discussion & do something you enjoy).

~Definition:  TRIP:  moving from point A to point B using a motor vehicle or aircraft, where A & B are different locations. (i.e., going to the mall is one trip...returning home is another)..when your destination is reached, that terminates that trip. So, stopping at different locations, could add to quite a few trips. Flying from NYC  to LA, nonstop, is one trip.

~Definition:  Fatal trip:  one that produces a fatality.

~Definition:  Fatality ratio= (number of fatalities) divided by (the total number of trips). I will use this ratio to measure your chances of being killed in either an aircraft or motor vehicle.

~Assumption:  The statistics for 2002 are a reasonable estimate of current trends.

~Assumption:  On average, a person who drives a motor vehicle takes 8 trips/day (some more, some less)...this is my own personal estimation...

~The following estimations are found in the reporting statistics of the National Safety Council, US Dept of transportation, National Transportation Library, & the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. (http://nsc.org, http://bts.gov, & http://ntl.bts.gov)

~There were situations where I couldn’t find figures for 2002, but did find them for 2000 & 2004...so, I just took the average of these to estimate 2002.

~In 2002, 653 fatalities were reported by aircrafts, 20,623 were reported by motor vehicles.

~In 2002, an estimate of the total number of scheduled flights was 10,249,506. This number will represent the total number of "flying trips" per year.

~In 2002, an estimate of the total number of motor vehicles that are on the roads was 121.5 million.

~Calculating, 8 trips per vehicle/day, we get, approximately, 354,780 million "driving trips" per year.

~Using my 2nd definition, the probability of a fatal air trip = 653 divided by 10,249,506 = .00006371

~Similarly, the probability of a fatal motor vehicle trip = 20,623 divided by 354,780,000,000 = .000000058.

~Since the probabilities in both cases are extremely small, it will make little difference to most travelers. However, notice that the fatality ratio for the motor vehicle fatalities is much lower than for the air fatalities
....approximately by a factor of 1,098...

~Conclusion:  You are 1,098 times more likely to die in a plane accident than in a motor vehicle accident, even though both are very unlikey to occur.
So, driving is safer than flying (not to mention putting your life in the hands of complete strangers, including inept pilots, maintance workers, security personal, federal agencies, inadequate inspections of planes, acts of terrorism & air traffic controllers falling asleep on the job).

~My point:  When you hear or read a statistic, be critical. Just don‘t accept it blindly. Ask yourself, "are all the facts present?"..."is there another way of looking at the situation?"..."when I use a different statistic, does it give me the same conclusion?"...

~Final note:  Most people do not analyze "things"...most scientists & mathematicians do...sometimes I wish I didn’t...since it takes away many feelings of comfort most people enjoy....that old expression, "ignorance is bliss"...seems to hold here...